The Philadelphia Fed released the coincident index for June today. Wisconsin has re-attained economic activity levels recorded at the NBER peak of February 2020.
Figure 1: Wisconsin coincident index (black), nonfarm payroll employment (teal), civilian employment (red). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: Philadelphia Fed, BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Wisconsin’s coincident index is 0.12% above prior peak, while the US as a whole is down 2.53%. Wisconsin’s relative position versus other states is shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2: Philadelphia Fed June coincident index relative to 2020M02, in %. Darker indicates larger positive numbers. Source: Philadelphia Fed and author’s calculations.
Given the spread of the delta variant in the relatively low-vaccination-rate states of the South, it will be of interest to see if there is a growth impact in July/August. The Baumeister et al. weekly index (through July 10) has not shown a big negative growth rate yet in states such as Missouri and Arkansas. (See WaPo for assessment of trends.)