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Are prediction markets going to make it this time around?

That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column, here is one excerpt: A skeptic might say that demand is limited because there are already so many good and highly informative markets in other assets. In 2009, for instance, was a market necessary to predict […]

A Literature Review on Economic Policy Response to Covid-19

An excellent review of empirical findings regarding the various provisions is contained in this FEDS Notes article, by Elena Falcettoni, and Vegard Nygaard. The COVID-19 pandemic has kept economists busy analyzing many aspects of economic side of the coronavirus impact. This note is meant to […]

EUR/USD Falls on Thursday, Doesn’t Heed US Macro Releases

EUR/USD Falls on Thursday, Doesn’t Heed US Macro Releases March 4, 2021 by Vladimir Vyun EUR/USD fell today, extending yesterday’s drop. The currency pair did not show a strong reaction to US macroeconomic releases that came out during the trading session. Nonfarm productivity dropped by […]

Can economists be trusted?

For the most part, economists don’t give people advice on how to run their lives. Rather we tend to focus on explaining the behavior of consumers and businesses, usually assuming they are at least somewhat rational. One exception is when there is a “principal-agent problem”, […]

Thursday assorted links

1. Reopen the schools. 2. Biotech to revive the woolly mammoth? 3. Chad Jones on the economics of a declining population. 4. Europe is failing. 5. Deirdre McCloskey memoir update. Good stuff, more interesting than the core memoir itself. 6. Letter and petition from Glasgow […]

Postscript: Orwell for Socialism

[Scroll to the end for a couple final reactions to comments .] In a reflective moment, George Orwell wrote, “Every line of serious work that I have written since 1936 has been written, directly or indirectly, against totalitarianism and for democratic socialism, as I understand […]

Amazon Higher As UK Grocer Opens

Amazon Lower On Year Shares in tech giant Amazon are trading higher today ahead of the US open. The company’s stock price has been on a steady decline from the yearly highs printed above the 3400 level, taking price down to recent lows around the […]

How Will the End of Lockdowns Across the US Affect the Markets?

The US is about to cross an important covid vaccine threshold of reaching a quarter of the population getting at least their first dose. While this would exceed the percentage of people over the age of 65, the rollout hasn’t been as concentrated. So far, […]

Canada: An Official Strong Recommendation for First Doses First

Canada’s National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI), a scientific advisory group to the government, has made a forceful and dramatic statement strongly favoring First Doses First (delay the second dose.) This is a very big deal for the entire world. Basically NACI have endorsed everything […]

USDCNH Cycle Correction Hints At Impulse Growth

The current USDCNH formation hints at a large zigzag of a cycle degree. This recently completed the bearish correction b which took the form of a triple zigzag. On the 1H timeframe, the final part of correction b, and the bearish impulse (C) of the […]