Trade Policy

Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Different Economies

Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. For single economies: United States (NBER) Euro area (CEPR/EABCN) [latest] France (Fr.Econ.Assn.) Japan (Cabinet Office) [chronology] (note: this is a government agency source) United Kingdom (NIESR) […]

Kevin Hassett Prediction: 7% y/y Inflation by December 2021

Remember this Kevin Hassett projection of Covid-19 deaths, from May 2020? Source: CEA archived. In this video, Kevin Hassett predicts (“almost for sure”) 7% year-on-year inflation by December. Figure 1: CPI – all (blue), and Hassett prediction of 7% y/y inflation for 2021 (brown square), […]

How Much of US Federal Debt Is Held by Foreign/International Investors

As a share of debt held by the public (i.e., excluding intragovernmental holdings). Figure 1: US Federal debt held by foreign & international investors as share of Federal debt held by public. Source: FRED and author’s calculations. The recent decline in the ratio arises due […]

One Year Ahead Expected CPI Inflation Rates

Coming down for June, according to the University of Michigan survey of consumers. Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light […]

More “Reverse Radical” than “V”, but more “V” than “Swoosh”

A little less than a year ago, I think I was in the “Swoosh” camp; I’m still in the “Reverse Radical” camp now, but it is amazing how fast GDP is rising. Figure 1: GDP (black), Survey of Professional Forecasters May mean (red), IHS-Markit nowcast […]

Inflation: Three Event Studies

The surprise in inflation for the March, April, and May reference month releases induced respectively 2, 4, and 6 basis point upward moves in the 5 year inflation breakevens — hardly earthshaking. Figure 1: Five year inflation breakeven calculated as five year Treasury yield minus […]

Interpreting Inflation Rates for May

May CPI inflation surprised on the upside, with month-on-month 0.6% vs 0.4% (not annualized) Bloomberg consensus, year-on-year 5% vs 4.7%. Note that May’s 0.6% month-on-month is below April’s 0.8%, highlighting the decline in high-frequency inflation. We have the following readings on inflation (month-on-month): Figure 1: […]

Wisconsin Goods Exports during the Trump Trade War

Even before Covid-19 struck, Wisconsin exports were declining despite a sideways-trending dollar… Figure 1: Real “exports” of goods originating in Wisconsin, deflated by US PPI-all commodities in millions 1982$ (blue, left log scale), and real export-weighted value of US dollar for Wisconsin, 1988=100 (red, right […]

Guest Contribution: “How Tariffs Affect China’s Exports”

Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the […]

Everything Is Relative

From CNN Business, Dollar doldrums are back as inflation worries heat up: The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback versus the euro, yen and several other major global currencies, has fallen about 2.5% in the past three months -— and it’s now down more […]