Recession

Businesses cooperate, politicians compete

The FT points out that US businesses wish to cooperate with China while the politicians in both parties want to compete: America’s public and private elites are no longer as one on China, if they ever were. In Washington, vigilance to Beijing is the nearest […]

Treasury Ten Year Yield Forecasts

Little changed from July, at least from the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists: Figure 1: Interest rate on 10 year Treasury bond actual (black), mean forecast from November 2020 WSJ survey (salmon inverted triangle), from July 2021 (green triangle), from October 2021 (pink square), […]

As Bitter As It Is Illuminating

Co: Why did they pick you? Because you like to fight? Rambo: I’m expendable. Co: What mean expendable? Rambo: It’s like someone invites you to a party and you don’t show up. It doesn’t really matter. —Rambo: First Blood, Part II “Leave no man behind.” […]

StockWatch: J&J Vaccine Adds Over $500m in Q3!

Johnson & Johnson sold over $500m of its Covid-19 vaccine in Q3, which beat Wall Street’s profit expectations. At the same time, the company maintained its Covid vaccine sales outlook for the year at $2.5bn. Netflix’s added over 4 million new subscribers in Q3. This […]

Oil: The Perfect Storm Keeps Brewing

Last night, workers at a US refinery in Texas voted against resuming work in the latest round of acrimonious negotiations between the union and Exxon Mobile. The company plans to transform the location into the largest refiner on the continent. Production continued at the facility […]

XAUUSD Gold Price May Fall To 1595.91

The Gold structure suggests that the intermediate correction wave (4), is a triple zigzag consisting of minor sub-waves W-X-Y-X-Z. As part of the correction (4), the final minor wave Z is under construction and is almost complete. If we take a closer look at its […]

Intraday Market Analysis – Gold Attempts to Rebound

XAUUSD awaits breakout Gold inched higher as the dollar index hit a two-week low. The latest rebound has been checked by the psychological level of 1800. With the RSI showing an overbought situation, short-term buyers were swift in taking profit from this resistance on the […]

The FDA’s War Against the Truth on Ivermectin

It’s important to address two criticisms of our work. The first is that we exaggerated the FDA’s warning on ivermectin. The second is that Merck’s stance on ivermectin proved that even the company that developed ivermectin thought that it doesn’t work for Covid-19. First, we […]

Recession before the Leaves Fall?

From Blanchflower and Bryson: It seems to us that there is every likelihood that the US is entered recession at the end of 2021. The most compelling evidence is from the Conference Board expectations data for the eight biggest states. Well, that’s certainly provocative. Here’s […]

The Card Consensus

My Ph.D. Micro teacher, David Card, won the Nobel Prize last week. My best-known piece on Card examines the tension between his research on the minimum wage and his research on immigration. My most extensive discussion of his work and intellectual influence, however, appears in […]