Recession

Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-May

April industrial production figures were released yesterday. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from April release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 4/30 for April […]

Inflation Expectations – Mid-May

Surveys indicate some acceleration, vis a vis last month. Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light green), forecast from Cleveland […]

The Week Ahead: Diamond vs. Paper Hands

NAS 100 consolidates as panic selling slows down Tech stocks were among the hardest hit when investors feared the era of cheap money may end sooner than later, and along with it the breakneck rise of growth sectors. However, the sell-off could turn out to […]

StockWatch: Alibaba Drops Over 5%

Alibaba posted its first operating loss as a public company as an antitrust fine it received last month weighed on its earnings. eBay will start offering loans to businesses that sell through its marketplace in the UK, pitting the e-commerce group against high street banks. […]

Biden’s Latest Spending Plan: More Inflation?

The Biden administration has or is planning to get approval for spending a total of $6.0T in additional spending this year. This is on top of the regular budget. It also comes after around $9.7T of monetary expansion under the last year of the Trump […]

NZDUSD: Did The Primary Intervening Wave Ⓧ End

NZDUSD seems to be forming an intervening wave x of a cycle degree. This consists of primary corrective sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ. The wave Ⓦ is a bearish standard zigzag, and the intervening wave Ⓧ resembles a bullish triple zigzag pattern. The final wave Ⓨ is at […]

Intraday Market Analysis – S&P 500 Sees Bids on Trendline

SPX 500 rebounds from daily trendline The S&P 500 reverses sharp decline as investors digest soaring consumer prices. On the daily timeframe, the index saw strong buying interest on the rising trendline (4040) from March 2020. In conjunction with the RSI’s double-dip in the oversold […]

The Markets in Waves: EURUSD, USOIL, GOLD, USDCAD & SPX500!

In today’s video, our Head of Investment Research Stavros Tousios dives into the top Elliott Wave opportunities the markets have in store for us. Asset TimeStamps: $EURUSD 01:10​​​​​​​​​​ $USOIL 03:40 $GOLD 09:05 ​​​​​​​​​​​​$USDCAD 10:45 $SPX500 14:40 Join our responsible trading community – Open your Orbex […]

CPI Inflation Rates, Month-on-Month

Headline vs. Trimmed vs. Sticky Price: Figure 1: Month-on-month annualized inflation rate for CPI-all (black), 16% trimmed (brown), and sticky price (blue). Source: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and Atlanta Fed via FRED, and author’s calculations. Original Article

StockWatch: Amazon’s Wins Court battle

Amazon has won a court battle over €250m in taxes that it had been ordered to pay Luxembourg. The European Commission had ordered the tech giant to repay the funds as back taxes, alleging that Amazon had been given unfair special treatment. Apple said it […]