here and there

Wisconsin Economic Activity in May

Employment numbers for May were released for today. Nonfarm payroll employment and the March 2021 Outlook forecast: Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from April release (blue), forecast from March 2021 Economic Outlook (teal squares), all in 000’s, seasonally adjusted. Source: BLS, DWD, and Wisconsin Department […]

Guest Contribution: “Globalisation and the Efficiency-Equity Trade-off”

Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Roland Beck, Virginia di Nino and Livio Stracca (all at the European Central Bank). The views expressed belong to the authors and are not necessarily shared by the institutions to which the authors are […]

One Year CPI Inflation Expectations

The FOMC has upped its expectations of PCE inflation [Politico] [CR]. Here’s latest available CPI inflation expectations. Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey […]

Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-June (and Retail Sales)

Industrial production was released yesterday, along with retail sales. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from May release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 6/16 for June nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade […]

A Monetarist Manifesto for the Covid-19 Era

Juan E. Castañeda (Director) and Tim Congdon (Chairman) of the Institute for International Monetary Research at the University of Buckingham write today: With the M3 velocity of circulation at 1.04, equilibrium nominal national income comes out as roughly $29,000b. …if nominal GDP needs to rise […]

A Sugar High?

A lot of chatter about a sugar high coming from the passage of the American Rescue Plan, previous fiscal and monetary measures, combined with the increase in CPI inflation. Time to step back and assess. First, the chatter: Figure 1: Google Trends count for “Sugar […]

Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Different Economies

Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. For single economies: United States (NBER) Euro area (CEPR/EABCN) [latest] France (Fr.Econ.Assn.) Japan (Cabinet Office) [chronology] (note: this is a government agency source) United Kingdom (NIESR) […]

Kevin Hassett Prediction: 7% y/y Inflation by December 2021

Remember this Kevin Hassett projection of Covid-19 deaths, from May 2020? Source: CEA archived. In this video, Kevin Hassett predicts (“almost for sure”) 7% year-on-year inflation by December. Figure 1: CPI – all (blue), and Hassett prediction of 7% y/y inflation for 2021 (brown square), […]

How Much of US Federal Debt Is Held by Foreign/International Investors

As a share of debt held by the public (i.e., excluding intragovernmental holdings). Figure 1: US Federal debt held by foreign & international investors as share of Federal debt held by public. Source: FRED and author’s calculations. The recent decline in the ratio arises due […]

One Year Ahead Expected CPI Inflation Rates

Coming down for June, according to the University of Michigan survey of consumers. Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light […]