Where to Find Business Cycle Dates for Different Economies

Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. For single economies: United States (NBER) Euro area (CEPR/EABCN) [latest] France (Fr.Econ.Assn.) Japan (Cabinet Office) [chronology] (note: this is a government agency source) United Kingdom (NIESR) […]

In praise of “death panels”

As far as I know, neither political party has ever advocated “death panels”, that is, panels of experts that would deny Medicare coverage to FDA-approved treatments that don’t pass a cost/benefit test. But maybe they should. Biogen’s new drug to treat Alzheimer’s was recently evaluated […]

Kevin Hassett Prediction: 7% y/y Inflation by December 2021

Remember this Kevin Hassett projection of Covid-19 deaths, from May 2020? Source: CEA archived. In this video, Kevin Hassett predicts (“almost for sure”) 7% year-on-year inflation by December. Figure 1: CPI – all (blue), and Hassett prediction of 7% y/y inflation for 2021 (brown square), […]

Libel Laws Should All be Repealed

Libel law is back in the news what with some public rethinking (more like wailing and gnashing of teeth) about New York Times v. Sullivan. Should public figures be more or less protected from being libeled is one issue that has arisen. Another is exactly […]

MiB: Brad Stone on Bezos & Amazon

This week, we speak with Brad Stone, author of the just-published “Amazon Unbound: Jeff Bezos and the Invention of a Global Empire.” Stone is the senior executive editor for technology at Bloomberg News after spending a decade as the technology writer for BusinessWeek and before […]

10 Weekend Reads

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish blend coffee, grab a seat on the massage chair, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • There’s a New Vision for Crypto, and It’s Wildly Different From Bitcoin Give Bitcoin some credit: A […]

How Much of US Federal Debt Is Held by Foreign/International Investors

As a share of debt held by the public (i.e., excluding intragovernmental holdings). Figure 1: US Federal debt held by foreign & international investors as share of Federal debt held by public. Source: FRED and author’s calculations. The recent decline in the ratio arises due […]

One Year Ahead Expected CPI Inflation Rates

Coming down for June, according to the University of Michigan survey of consumers. Figure 1: CPI inflation year-on-year (black), median expected from Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected from Michigan Survey of Consumers (red), median from NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (light […]

Deflation, Punctuated by Spasms of Inflation

The price of batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades Source: Our World In Data My perspective on inflation has been well defined: The general Cost of Living has been trending downwards over the past 3 decades, even as global standards of […]

10 Friday AM Reads

My end of week morning train WFH reads: • MIT Bitcoin Experiment Nets 13,000% Windfall for Students Who Held On. Those who cashed out are left with an expensive lesson in regret: One in ten cashed out in the first two weeks — one in […]