Energy Futures and Future Energy Prices

The IMF blog (Andrea Pescatori, Martin Stuermer, and Nico Valckx) predicts: “Surging Energy Prices May Not Ease Until Next Year”. This assertion is based upon the following graph of futures: Source: Pescatori, Steurmer, Valckx (2021). Futures are pointing downward. How much faith should we put […]

The Price of Bitcoin

Over seven and a half years ago, Jim remarked about Bitcoin: Hard to know where this is all going to lead. But one thing is clear– we have added a very interesting new chapter in the history of money. In my course on the financial […]

Different CPIs

A recent exchange [1] on Econbrowser regarding forecasts of CPI reminded me that — even among the official series — there’s more than one CPI. Figure 1: CPI-all urban (blue), and CPI-wage earners and clerical workers (red), s.a., in logs 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates […]

Guest Contribution: “How far to full employment? – An update”

Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland. Back in July 2021, when […]

Wisconsin Employment in September

DWD released September figures today. Nonfarm payroll employment trends sideways, as manufacturing and high contact services employment like leisure and hospitality services resume a divergence. The release makes a few points. Here are my key observations. The establishment survey indicates stall in total and private […]

Treasury Ten Year Yield Forecasts

Little changed from July, at least from the Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists: Figure 1: Interest rate on 10 year Treasury bond actual (black), mean forecast from November 2020 WSJ survey (salmon inverted triangle), from July 2021 (green triangle), from October 2021 (pink square), […]

Recession before the Leaves Fall?

From Blanchflower and Bryson: It seems to us that there is every likelihood that the US is entered recession at the end of 2021. The most compelling evidence is from the Conference Board expectations data for the eight biggest states. Well, that’s certainly provocative. Here’s […]

GDP Forecasts

The October Wall Street Journal survey of economists, now quarterly, is out. A substantial downshift in the forecasted level of GDP is apparent. Figure 1: GDP (bold black), November 2020 WSJ survey mean (red), July 2021 survey mean (blue), and October 2021 survey mean (green). […]

Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-October

Here is a graph of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, including industrial production, which missed expectations (actual -1.3% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg consensus, m/m not annualized): Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from August release (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal […]

A Graphical Primer to Interpreting the Sources of Inflation in the Covid Era

For students in Econ 435, using model originally in Robert Hall and John Taylor, “Macroeconomics”, and shown in the ADAS handout. We hear about lots of factors affecting both output and inflation in this Covid impacted period: demand induced overheating, supply shocks, supply chain disruptions, […]