Market Inflation Expectations and Real Rates

Is the inflation scare bubble over? As of yesterday, the five year inflation breakeven was 2.5%, down from 2.72% in mid-May. The estimated inflation risk and liquidity premia adjusted 5 year breakeven was 1.62% as of 7/30 (when the corresponding actual breakeven was 2.56%). Figure […]

CDC Ensemble Model Ups Predicted Florida Weekly Deaths

Compare the CDC ensemble forecast released today, as compared to that generated the previous week and discussed in this post. Source: CDC, August 2 ensemble forecast. The August 2 forecasted Florida weekly death rate for 8/23 is about 690, up from a bit under 600 […]

What Would I Have Predicted for 2020 Acres Burned If I Had Looked at YTD Figures, One Year Ago?

If I didn’t know anything about the changing pattern of wildfire burns, I would’ve probably concluded “all clear”. To see this, consider the following picture I could’ve drawn a year ago: Figure 1: Acres burned (black) and acres burned year-to-date (YTD) 4 August (red), and […]

US-China Economic Relations on Talking Trade

I had the pleasure of speaking with UW’s Ian Coxhead and Sandi Siegel, President of MITA and of ME Dey on the subject at Talking Trade last week about trade, direct investment and competition in technology production. Some of the hotspots depicted are now longer […]

Is Economic Policy Uncertainty Really This Low in Hong Kong?

The Economic Policy Uncertainty index, calculated using the Baker, Bloom and Davis methodology: Figure 1: Hong Kong Economic Policy Uncertainty index (blue). Source: Luk et al. via The recent downward movement seems odd to me, given the high uncertainty regarding the direction of political […]

Business Cycle Indicators as of August 2

IHS-MarkIt (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) released monthly GDP today. The July employment situation will be released this Friday. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from June release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 8/2 for July nonfarm payroll employment (light blue +), industrial production (red), personal income […]

If Hospitalizations Lead Fatalities: Prospects for Florida

With large shares of populations vaccinated, case counts are no longer a good predictor of fatalities arising from Covid-19. Hospitalization might prove better (and ICU hospitalizations even better). The statistics do not augur well, particularly for Florida. Source: GS CovidTracker, August 2, 2021. Obviously, Florida […]

Geographical Diversity in Journal Editing: Journal of International Money & Finance

Angus, Atalay, Newton and Ubilava write “Editorial boards of leading economics journals show high institutional concentration and modest geographic diversity”. There’s no doubt diversity of all types is an issue of concern in the economics professions, and here’s one more dimension. Noting the US dominance […]

Messages from the 21Q2 GDP Advance Release: No Economy Is an Island

With apologies to John Donne. Jim provided some key points in his Thursday post regarding the 21Q2 advance figures. Here are my additional takeaways: (1) the Administration’s forecast locked down in February looks prescient; (2) Final sales were higher than GDP, (3) exports have not […]

Business Cycle Indicators for End-July 2021

Consumption, personal income and St. Louis Fed’s real manufacturing and trade industry sales were released today. The July employment situation will be released next Friday. This is the picture today. Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from June release (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus as of 7/30 […]